Throughout US President Donald Trump’s second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements.
The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president’s most significant market-moving statements.
It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.
Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public.
Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president’s interventions.
Here are five of the most significant examples.
9 March 2026: ‘The war is very complete, pretty much’
Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market.
Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was “very complete, pretty much”.
- 18:29 GMT: Oil bets surge
- 19:16 GMT: Trump says war is nearly complete
- 19:17 GMT: Oil drops by 25%
The first time the public would have known about the interview was at 15:16 Eastern Time (19:16 GMT) when the reporter posted about it on X.
Oil traders reacted to this news that the conflict could end much sooner than expected by selling oil, with the price plunging by around 25%.
However, market data shows a huge surge of bets were placed on the price of oil falling at 18:29 GMT – a full 47 minutes before the reporter’s post.
The traders who placed those bets will have made millions of dollars from the movement in oil prices.
23 March 2026: ‘Complete and total resolution to hostilities’
On 23 March, just two days after threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants, Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had held “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Tehran over a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” to hostilities.
It was a major surprise to diplomatic observers and to traders.
- 10:48-10:50 GMT: Oil bets surge
- 11:04 GMT: Trump posts about “total resolution” to hostilities
- 11:05 GMT: Oil drops by 11%
Immediately, stocks rose and the US benchmark price of oil – which had been climbing – fell sharply.
As the BBC reported at the time, 14 minutes before the president’s post there were an unusually high number of bets on the US oil price.
The same pattern was seen in traders buying contracts for Brent crude, the other major oil benchmark.
The trades appeared “abnormal, for sure,” one oil analyst told the BBC at the time.
